Entries by tk76

Even a casual fan can see that this team needs a major overhaul. They are not a player or coach away from "going uptown." We can debate which moves are most pressing, but unquestionably action needs to be taken... and I believe that action requires a new G.M.

Ed Stefanski has several positive qualities that translate into being a good G.M. He acts decisively, has a good basketball mind, communicates well and has experience and strong NBA connections. All of his moves have been well intentioned and most were arguably reasonable at the time. I'm not against him being an NBA GM, but he cannot carry out the job that needs to be done. Not for this team.

The problem is simple. Stefanski has too many personal ties which has complicated his ability to make the bold moves required of him. Bring in a new G.M. without the baggage of the last two years and the job becomes clearer. Having a new G.M. takes away the need to win and succeed right now. Whereas Stefanski has committed the team to win, and needs short term success to vindicate his current tenure.

Almost exactly one year ago I posted about the Sixers yearly emotional roller coaster for 2006-present:

The stages of a Sixers season: 2006-> present
1. Expectations
2. Confusion/rationalization
3. Anger
4. Doubt
5. Despair
6. Changes, youth movement
7. optimism (early part of run)
8. Enthusiasm (late part of run)
9. Reality (season over with or without 1 round of playoffs)
10. Excitement over mid 1st round pick with potential

There are several reasons for this. But the main one that troubles me is the yearly realization by coaches/management that the road that must be taken is too painful... and then the cop out response that yields temporary wins at the expense of puitting off the future. In nearly every case the team was ready to bottom, but instead elected for a quick fix of using vets and playing young players out of the right position in order to try and win a few meaningless games:

As part 1 of our "Defensive Boot Camp" series we will look at defensive rebounding. In their first game back from the aforementioned "Boot Camp", coach Eddie Jordan elected to go with a small starting line-up. He went with Lou and Green as an undersized backcourt, and Thad and Sam as his frontcourt. Interesting defensive choices to say the least.

On the defensive glass there were not that many opportunities, given the Jazz shot .522 overall and .545 from 3pts. The Sixers grabbed 39 defensive boards and surrendered only 6 offensive boards... so overall a great 87% rebounding rate. So on the surface a good night on the defensive boards. But looking at the individual numbers brings up some issues:

Defensive Rebounds:
Dalembert 9
Iguodala 5
Green 4
Speights 3
Holiday 2
Brand 1
Ivey 1
Young 0

Sam, as usual, rebounded well. Its a shame he acts as if fouling out is only a theoretical issue. he picked up 5 fouls in exactly 9 minutes of playing time. Also, the Sixers got tremendous rebounding from their starting SG and SF (Green and Iguodala.) But Brand, Speights and Young combined for 4 defensive rebounds.

Hard to slam Thad in a game where he was the only player with a positive +/- (+10), but this is a major issue if E.J. and the organization really see Thad as their starting PF. On top of this, Brand, who has publicly called out Speights for his defense (justifiably), has been a poor defensive rebounder this season.

I will let the numbers speak for themselves. Defensive rebounding percentage is an estimate of what % of available defensive rebounds a player grabs. In general 18% is good and 24% or above is great. Elite defensive rebounders like Duncan and Boozer are 26% for career. Rodaman was 29.6% Most top defensive rebounders are 24% or better. For example, Sam is 24.6% for his career.

Defensive rebounding percentage this season:
Sam: 27.4% (somewhat inflated by playing next to Thad, so less competition)
Brand: 15.9% (Down from career average of 19.1%)
Speights: 18.1%
Young: 11.4% (career 12.3- somewhat artificially lowered given plays 1/2 minutes at SF)
Iguodala 17.6 (career 14.4)

For his career Brand is a good but somewhat over-rated defensive rebounder. His career defensive rebounding % of 19.1% (range 18.2-19.9%) is good, but he's never been an elite defensive rebounder by this metric. Thad, on the other hand has no business playing PF. You cannot have your PF rebounding at a lower rate than the average NBA SF. The only saving grace is that Iguodala has been a beast on the boards considering he is splitting minutes at SG and SF.

Stats per Basketball reference.

We all know Eddie Jordan is a disaster and Ed Stefanski is probably a financially castrated GM who will not be here for that much longer (his 2 big moves of Brand and EJ have been epic failures and his team is capped out.)

The team is already horrible... Time to look at the big picture and decide what of this team is salvageable. Time to face the facts:

Right now:
Bad and mostly too young (19-23) and up against the tax. So winning anything in the next 2 years is out the window.

2-4 years from now:
-Sam/Green/Kapono gone. Sounds great! But 8M goes to Brand/Iguodala's expanding salaries. The rest to Young.
-Young core now 21-25...ready to enter their prime... Sounds great!
-Iguodala and Brand on the books for 30M and 34M: 50% of the Cap! These growing numbers loom over the clubs future like the National Debt. No way to add to this roster despite clearing off those bad contracts.
...So the only possible way that team wins is if a rookie scale guy is a superstar (Say John Wall or someone similar.)

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So are we willing to waste away the NEXT 3-4 YEARS?

I can see only one conclusion...


Trade away both Iguodala and Brand. (Of course if you can move Brand alone then great- but I doubt that is an option.) Do whatever is necessary to get out from those contracts- even if it costs talent and leaves the team a disgrace. As long as you hold onto 1st round picks.

... Because waiting 4 years is not an option.

Michael Vick an Eagle- raises more questions than answers.

Q: Why the Eagles?

A: It was interesting to think of which team would take the leap and sign Vick. The obvious candidates were:

-The risk taking/egocentric owners. Teams like Oakland, Dallas and Washington live to make waves and make the bold moves that leave other teams scratching their heads.
-Then their are the mercenaries like New England and Pittsburgh, who believe they can maximize talent into wins with their strong system and track record of success.
-Lastly the desperate teams like Cincinnati, who are facing a season of low expectations and low gate revenue. Where the potential rewards outweighs the risk of negative publicity.

But the Eagles had a different and somewhat surprising motivation... believe it or not idealism. The liberal activist owner combined with the deeply religious coach trying to make amends for the demons haunting his all to public family life jumped at the chance at the ultimate reclamation project. Maybe I am the naive one, but it sounds like the team has bought in to the "reformed man" tale from Vick and believe that they can provide the structure and support Vick needs to follow through on his purported good intentions. Unfortunately, there have been many similar staories of public redemption that now serve more as cautionary tales, but the Eagles seem committed to take their shot.

Only an organization like the Eagles would see the Michael Vick signing as a chance to raise national awareness on animal cruelty. Don't expect the team to dodge moral issue. Much like an embattled president wrapping himself in the flag during a time of war, expect to see Vick and the team front and center with the Humane Society and whatever other animal rights group is willing to stand with them promoting animal welfare. No longer will we just hear of 'Go Green" touting environemental responsibility. We will see the Eagles defending all endangered species, may they be wild or domestic.

Don't get me wrong, there will be a lot of spin to this publicity campaign, and they are very much playing a PR game. Also, there is a bit of the Patriot-like angle of the arrogant team that believes it can incorporate troubled talent that is too hot for anyone else to handle... But at the heart of it all lies either the idealism or naivete of Andy Reid and Jeffrey Lurie. Or maybe it is me who is naive and being taken in by the Eagles media P.R. machine? What do you think?

Nice foul shooting.

p.s.... Thaddeus Young is LEFT HANDED!

Fo-Fo-Fo

All they need is to stay over .500 for the next 16 games.

DiLeo deservedly gets credit for the Sixers improved record since he has taken over. They are much better overall on offense, and in particular coming out of TO's. That said, he has some blind spots that are very reminiscent of Mo Cheeks, which makes me believe these are organizational blind spots.

Look down the +/- for the team and you seen two regulars at the bottom of the list: Evans and Ivey. Both of these players are similar in that they can provide defensive intensity and energy. Both also have shooting issues to say the least. And yet both share the floor way too often... and almost always at the key opening of the 4th quarter.

Players need rest, and I'm not saying never use Evans or Ivey... just don't always put them on the floor together. It is a recipe for a cold spell for the team, and puts way too much pressure on their teammates to score (usually Speights and Williams who are 20 and 22- too young to handle that burden.)

Bench players like Evans, Ivey, Green and Ratliff are limited in terms of what they can bring. They need well defined roles for them to be a net positive. Yet it seems like only Ratliff (and maybe Green) are used in a way that accentuates their positives. Evans and Ivey need to be hidden o offense, and that can't happen if they are always out there together.

This will be the shortest postgame post.

Suffice it to say the whole "Thad scores without plays called for him" was always a bad idea. Hopefully he is the offensive focal point for the Sixers from here on out.

Good to see the Sixers get their legs back under them with a few solid wins heading into a difficult Western trip... but excuse us for not getting our hopes up for a momentous run. This team is dangerous when they are on, but they are nothing if not streaky and mediocre. Looking beyond these few games, let's tak about the organization.

Person #1: Is it BK or ES?

He becomes Sixers GM after several years as the #2 man for a high profile team that lost in the finals a few years ago, but now is declining. The guy is clearly bright, passionate about the Sixers and well spoken and follicular challenged. He seems to want to make the right moves, but the moves he makes end up leaving the team financially hamstrung with ill fitting parts. The teams have guards who are low percentae outside shooters and big men who can't score inside.

Out the gate he resigns his own players to seemingly above market value, including a long term slightly less ten MLE level signing of an undersized SG with chucking tendencies and the inabilty to play PG or hit 3's (WG and Lou Williams.)

His big move is to add to an athletic team a nearly 30 year old former 20/10/2 PF who is recovering from a major leg injury. The guy has a huge salary, and a high BB IQ, but seems like more of an elbow jump shooter than the low post presence the team needed.

The GM hires a head coach with no prior head coaching experience. He quickly gets the team up against the tax, and yet has a hard time getting people in the seats.
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Person #2: Is it Mo or DiLeo?

A likable, soft spoken head coach who has a longstanding relationship with many of the team's players. He seems a bit uncomfortable in the spotlight, and not a obvious take charge leader. Rarely emotional in games, and almost never takes a technical or vocally stands up for his players.

His teams rely heavily on small ball. Often goes to high energy but offensively challenged line-up sporting 2-3 players who shoot less than 40% but have good intangibles. Their teams can't hit threes and tend to over-commit on defense- leaving open shooters. They also tend to go away from scorers afyer they have a good quarter. They lean heavily on limited vets like Evans and Green, but their teams tend to be sparked by a raw, athletic rookie who surprises with his ability to score inside and effect the game with their athleticism.

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The more some things change, the more they stay the same.

I want to follow up on my Jan 8th post Andre-Miller-Trades,-the-Cap-and-Luxury-Tax. Now that they have failed to unload Sam, Evans or Green, and have kept Miller, they are in a bit of a financial pickle for the next 2 years.

The next 2 summers the Sixers have 59M and 57M committed (without Miller and including #1 picks.) That puts them up near the cap. That leaves these options:

1. Resign Miller. This means no space under the tax for MLE signings of free agents for the next 2 summers. It means you go forward with the current roster + picks, min contract guys. Maybe you can unload Sam/Evans/Green for some shooting help... but I doubt it.

2. Let Miller walk. Now you are still against the cap, but at least have space under the tax to use the MLE each summer. That still means only one major addition a year, and they would have to start with a PG signing this summer.

3. Sign and trade Miller. If there is a team at the cap who wants to offer Miller more than the MLE, the Sixers could get something back for him. They would get back equal salary, allowing them to get someone back who makes more than the MLE... I doubt this works out well, because that would again put them back at the Tax threshold, and then who plays PG (unless you are swapping PG's.)

4. Make a move to dump a bad salary- which unfortunately would mean either taking back garbage, or sending away one of the young core or a #1 as sweetener. Ed has stated he wants to keep the young guys intact, so this fortunately is unlikely.

...This brings us back to the trading deadline. The biggest reason to trade Miller was to try and get someone to take on one of our bad contracts. None of those guys fits into the future of this team, so the sooner they can get off the books the better. I don't see another chance in the next 2 years to unload these guys without sacrificing one of the young guys in the process. So Ed missed a golden opportunity. He stated he was not looking to make a move for financial reasons- and I fault him for this.

Per CSN Brand will not be available for tonight's game against the Pacers.

The game is a simple one tonight. It all comes down to covering the 3 pt shot. Also should be fun to see Iguodala/Yound match up against Granger.


UPDATE
CSN now reporting Brand is out for the rest of the season...

If Allen's jumper was like a shot in the gut... this is the knockout punch. When you sign a 28 year old to a 5 year, escalating 80M contract you expect the real value to be on the front end.

Now they essentially signed a 29 year old coming off 2 surgeries to a 4 yr/67M escalating deal, and he possibly won't be back at 100% to start next year. Tough news to take given how otherwise the Sixers are such a young and promising team.

Punksatony Phil saw his shadow, so I guess that means 16 more days of Andre Miller trade rumors. Things heated up a bit 2 days ago over at theknicksblog.com, talking about a Philly/Portland three-way bringing Miller to the Rose City.

Today the unsubstantiated rumor got some fresh legs when the notorious Sixerfan1976 chimed in at RealGM.com :

The deal being talked about is Miller, Rush and Evans for Sergio, Outlaw, LaFrentz and maybe a conditional pick.....he wasnt sure about the pick

That's all I know...but its very much in play at this point from what I am told.

I dont think Miller wants to come back...thats a combo of my personal opinion plus what I was told.

My Take: I guess this has to fall in the 'where there is smoke there must be fire' category. None of these rumors are from credible sources, but they do sound plausible. If Miller is not going to re-sign then the team needs to deal him before the deadline. Otherwise his expiring deal will leave them nothing more than some breathing room under the tax with only the MLE left to find a replacement PG and a shooter.

The key to the Sixerfan1976 deal is flipping Evans bad contract for Outlaws good contract and Spanish Chocolate. Sergio might be worth acquiring for that nickname alone...

The NBA has announced the reserves for the All Star game: NBA link The players chosen are:

Devin Harris, Danny Granger, Jameer Nelson, Chris Bosh, Joe Johnson, Rashard Lewis and Paul Pierce.

Apparently, it helps to play for a winner, especially one in Orlando. All of the borderline choices were Magic or Celtics.

My take: not a surprise. Players are rewarded for playing for winners because they tend to be higher profile. It draws fans not only for the All Star game, but gives those players a higher stature when the playoffs come around. No reason to showcase a known star like VC if that team will be one and done in the playoffs. Harris and Bosh on the other hand are no brainers.

I don't think Iguodala was robbed, but I do think its a bit of a farce to reward Jameer for playing a few good months. He was in many ways a below average NBA PG heading into this season. Give him Most Improved Player, but don't tell me he is an All Star based on a few good months. Lewis is equally questionable.

All of these Sixers' bugaboos were on display in tonight's disappointing 101-86 loss to the Hornets. Disappointing mostly because these are correctable, albeit recurring issues.

1. Poor FT shooting. 12-20 won't get it done in a close game.

2. Letting concerns over officiating effect their game. The Sixers depend on a game having flow. Refs with happy whistles break that flow, and the Sixers let themselves become more concerned about the refs then the opponent, leading to...

3. Open shots for 3pts. Some teams are lazy, this team just makes mistakes. Sometimes, the more they hustle, the more the over-commit, over-help and leave guys open. They need discipline. Sometimes you don't help your teammate.

4. The 3rd quarter lull returned. Another game where the opponent turned the game around from the closing monets of the 1st half and the opening of the 3rd. A 6-3 run in the last minute of the half followed by a 10-0 run to open the 2nd half. The NBA is a game of runs, but the Sixers tend to let up the same time of the game many nights. Note that this is a the starters are in, and some of the sixers starters are poor.

5. Poor flow with Brand. This is expected and excusable, but it also was a recurring theme before his injury.

All 5 of these problems are correctable, and are holding back a team that does not lose for lack of talent or effort.