Sixers vs Mavs: The Iron Ha...

Holiday over Williams

This is the one I've been pushing hard for for quite a while. In fact, when Brian and I brought up which lineup we'd use to win now on the radio show, the one Jordan used yesterday was the one we both came up with.

I've had a problem with Williams and Iverson starting together since before Iverson signed, and the coach finally admitted during the post-game press conference that he needed more defense in the backcourt (although hedging it by saying he doesn't think they got burned defensively. Yeah, right). Even if you ignore the size mismatches, that duo is simply too bad at denying dribble penetration and too bad at defending the pick and roll to be effective together. While I would prefer Jrue starting next to a tall, good defender (Gee, if only we had one of those on the roster), this is a huge step up defensively.

Offensively, Jrue's tremendous in the open court. Both Iguodala and Holiday are great at snagging a defensive rebound and igniting a break, and the two of them should do great things together. In the half court, I love Jrue's play off the pick and roll, and generally love the ball movement when he's at the helm. We'll lose quite a bit in terms of Holiday's ability to score himself, but we may be able to make up for some of that with improved transition play and half-court ball movement.

Finally, I've said time and time again that I'll sacrifice immediate wins for long term player development. I do expect Jrue to be inconsistent, and I do expect him to make rookie mistakes. But I also think getting consistent playing time will help speed up his development, so I'm willing to take the rocky times while looking at the long term picture.

Brand over Young

With the way Young's been struggling, combined with Brand's good play, this one makes a lot of sense. Perhaps this helps Young focus and stop trying to force his way out of his slump, and if that happens the move is a success regardless of how well the starting lineup performs.

That being said, I do expect that frontcourt tandem to perform better, particularly defensively and on the glass. I've never been a fan of small-ball and playing Thad at the 4, and think Brand and Dalembert have the matching skillsets to be a good tandem (although I'd like to see Brand return to previous years form on the defensive glass).

My only minor qualm is I would prefer to see Thad start at SF with Iguodala at SG and Iverson off the bench, although there would be some redundancy with Iverson and Williams both coming off the bench, and that's assuming Iverson would even be willing to make such a move.

What has really changed?

As we saw last night, we're still going to see a lot of small lineups, as Iverson/Williams, Williams/Green and Iverson/Green all saw a significant amount of time as backcourt mates. We'll also see a lot of Thad at PF, as he didn't play one second at small forward against the Mavericks. Except now he'll be paired with Speights as the center, whereas before he was often paired with Dalembert in the starting lineup.

I don't like either of these situations, and would prefer more minutes for Brand, Dalembert and Speights (neither played 30 minutes last night), and less small-ball. Jordan's apparently abandoned that theory.

And Jrue's minutes? If last night is any indication, he'll still be on a short, inconsistent leash. Jrue started each half, but after being subbed for in the 1st and 3rd quarters didn't see the court the remainder of either half. That certainly lends credence that the starting lineup was determined by Stefanski, which is a topic in and of itself.

But, what this does guarantee is:
1) Jrue should see regular time with a solid lineup. If Jrue's starting it means he should see at least one significant run in both halves, which is more than could always be said in the past. It also means he should see some run with a lineup that should be able to defend extremely well, and I have high hopes for the Holiday/Brand combination.
2) It means less of Iverson and Williams playing together. That's a good thing, even if Jordan will continue to find ways to get Iverson/Green, and Williams/Green time together. The lesser of the evils, I suppose.
3) It means Dalembert and Brand will play together. I never really liked the Brand/Speights pairing, and thought Dalembert would have been a good pair with either of them. Now that guarantees at least 12 minutes per game of a frontcourt I like.
4) On the flip side, I really don't like the pairing of Speights and Young. I hope this doesn't happen all that often.

My Concerns?

There's a slight concern that the starting lineup won't have the offensive punch to remain competitive, particularly with Jrue so early in his development. That being said, I'd rather have that problem than the opposite defensive problems we've been experiencing.

I'm also concerned with not having a defender come off the bench (unless Carney begins getting into the regular rotation), particularly if Jordan's going to make wholesale substitutions like he did last night. I don't want to see a Williams/Green backcourt paired with a Young/Speights frontcourt all that often. It worked last night (in fact, this was the lineup that won the game for the Sixers, and much to my surprised played inspired defense, combined with what I thought was a lethargic Mavericks team that looked like they were on the tail end of a road trip). I don't expect to see this same amount of defensive success going forward. I'd like to see two of Iguodala, Brand, Dalembert and Holiday on the court at virtually all times.

Finally, I still don't think Jordan's going to be playing Holday as much as I would like. I could see Jordan having a near heart attack at the beginning of the third when the Sixers offense stagnated. The thing is, they held the Mavericks to 2 points in over 5 minutes of basketball. Even when the offense struggles (which the previous starting lineup did at times too), a team that defends well can remain in the ball game. Jordan doesn't see it that way and will prefer an offensive lineup instead. The problem is, when the offense struggles with Jordan's preferred lineup, and struggle they will, they won't have the defensive presence to remain in the game.

Who made the decision?

Did the mandate come from Stefanski? Probably. I think proof of that was in the rotations Jordan used. I'm not particularly fond of the General Manager making coaching decisions, but I guess it's better than the alternative (letting Jordan run wild). I just hope Jordan develops a longer leash with Holiday.

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