Tuesday, December 29. 2009
Just a quick addition I made tonight. On the boxscore it displays the advanced stats (Four Factors, if you will), showing the results for that game, the Sixers averages for the year, and the league averages. I've also now included the opponents average (up to the point of the game). So this way you can say "ah, the Sixers held the Blazers to 45.2% eFG%, which is under their yearly mark of 49.5%", getting all that information right form this site. Right now that data's only been entered for the Blazers game. I'll go back and fill in that data for the previous games later today.
Tuesday, December 29. 2009
Running a little late (and going to be working on a short nights sleep), so this is going to be short, quick thoughts.
- No idea why Portland didn't go to Andre Miller more in the post. None. Every time he tried he got right to the rim with little or no resistance from Lou Williams.
- Speaking of Lou, he's really struggling out there. Shooting 33% (8% from 3) with < 4 assists in 30 minutes of action.
- Iverson, on the other hand, was very good. He's never been a long range shooter, but I think his midrange game has generally been underrated throughout his career, and has looked very good at times in the 6 games he's been with the club.
- At first glance, one might assume Jordan's decision to go with Iverson/Lou in the backcourt paid dividends. It did not. Keep in mind the Sixers were down 10 midway through the 4th when Jordan decided to, *gasp*, actually go with a big lineup. Elton Brand fueled the Sixers win, not the Iverson/Lou backcourt.
- Jrue Holiday say about 30 seconds of gametime in the second half. Thaddeus Young did not play the final 18 minutes. I can't say I disagree with either decision tonight (Thad was ineffective and Jrue had one of his poorer outings), but overall this is not a strategy that is going to work out most nights. Besides the fact that I feel Jrue, even when he's struggling, brings more to the table than Ivey, I also cringe at nights like tonight and putting the cost of one win ahead of the long term development of our young players.
- Back to the starting lineup, that lineup didn't get totally manhandled last night because Martell Webster, despite his size advantage, doesn't have much in the way of a post game to make the Sixers pay for putting a smaller defender on him. I don't expect that to work on the rest of the road trip (or for most of the rest of the season, actually).
- Elton Brand had 25/9 in 30 minutes. Imagine what he could do if he got the start (and starters minutes).
- Iguodala's 14/7/9 line is great, but I loved the 0 turnovers the most. With Thad, Lou and Iverson struggling with turnover problems (particularly early in the game), Iguodala had a great game with the ball in his hands. If only we had a 2-guard who could create off the bounce.
That's it. Might have more later today. Feel free to leave your comments.
Sunday, December 27. 2009
As part 1 of our "Defensive Boot Camp" series we will look at defensive rebounding. In their first game back from the aforementioned "Boot Camp", coach Eddie Jordan elected to go with a small starting line-up. He went with Lou and Green as an undersized backcourt, and Thad and Sam as his frontcourt. Interesting defensive choices to say the least.
On the defensive glass there were not that many opportunities, given the Jazz shot .522 overall and .545 from 3pts. The Sixers grabbed 39 defensive boards and surrendered only 6 offensive boards... so overall a great 87% rebounding rate. So on the surface a good night on the defensive boards. But looking at the individual numbers brings up some issues:
Defensive Rebounds:
Dalembert 9
Iguodala 5
Green 4
Speights 3
Holiday 2
Brand 1
Ivey 1
Young 0
Sam, as usual, rebounded well. Its a shame he acts as if fouling out is only a theoretical issue. he picked up 5 fouls in exactly 9 minutes of playing time. Also, the Sixers got tremendous rebounding from their starting SG and SF (Green and Iguodala.) But Brand, Speights and Young combined for 4 defensive rebounds.
Hard to slam Thad in a game where he was the only player with a positive +/- (+10), but this is a major issue if E.J. and the organization really see Thad as their starting PF. On top of this, Brand, who has publicly called out Speights for his defense (justifiably), has been a poor defensive rebounder this season.
I will let the numbers speak for themselves. Defensive rebounding percentage is an estimate of what % of available defensive rebounds a player grabs. In general 18% is good and 24% or above is great. Elite defensive rebounders like Duncan and Boozer are 26% for career. Rodaman was 29.6% Most top defensive rebounders are 24% or better. For example, Sam is 24.6% for his career.
Defensive rebounding percentage this season:
Sam: 27.4% (somewhat inflated by playing next to Thad, so less competition)
Brand: 15.9% (Down from career average of 19.1%)
Speights: 18.1%
Young: 11.4% (career 12.3- somewhat artificially lowered given plays 1/2 minutes at SF)
Iguodala 17.6 (career 14.4)
For his career Brand is a good but somewhat over-rated defensive rebounder. His career defensive rebounding % of 19.1% (range 18.2-19.9%) is good, but he's never been an elite defensive rebounder by this metric. Thad, on the other hand has no business playing PF. You cannot have your PF rebounding at a lower rate than the average NBA SF. The only saving grace is that Iguodala has been a beast on the boards considering he is splitting minutes at SG and SF.
Stats per Basketball reference.
Thursday, December 24. 2009
The Eddie Jordan era has officially jumped the shark, reaching the level of absurdity that indicates an eventual replacement should be near.
The Wizards game was perhaps the most amazing thing I've ever seen. Down one possession with 35 seconds left to play, Eddie Jordan instructs his team to intentionally foul. Caron Butler makes both free throws and a very winnable game against a bad team is now out of reach, a combination of bad lineups and coaching blunders fans should never have to witness.
Continue reading "Eddie Jordan has jumped the shark"
Wednesday, December 23. 2009
We all know Eddie Jordan is a disaster and Ed Stefanski is probably a financially castrated GM who will not be here for that much longer (his 2 big moves of Brand and EJ have been epic failures and his team is capped out.)
The team is already horrible... Time to look at the big picture and decide what of this team is salvageable. Time to face the facts:
Right now:
Bad and mostly too young (19-23) and up against the tax. So winning anything in the next 2 years is out the window.
2-4 years from now:
-Sam/Green/Kapono gone. Sounds great! But 8M goes to Brand/Iguodala's expanding salaries. The rest to Young.
-Young core now 21-25...ready to enter their prime... Sounds great!
-Iguodala and Brand on the books for 30M and 34M: 50% of the Cap! These growing numbers loom over the clubs future like the National Debt. No way to add to this roster despite clearing off those bad contracts.
...So the only possible way that team wins is if a rookie scale guy is a superstar (Say John Wall or someone similar.)
---
So are we willing to waste away the NEXT 3-4 YEARS?
I can see only one conclusion...
Trade away both Iguodala and Brand. (Of course if you can move Brand alone then great- but I doubt that is an option.) Do whatever is necessary to get out from those contracts- even if it costs talent and leaves the team a disgrace. As long as you hold onto 1st round picks.
... Because waiting 4 years is not an option.
Tuesday, December 22. 2009
Speights offensive productivity has been nothing short of astounding so far this season, a pace he has continued to keep since returning for injury (in fact, averaging over 19 ppg in only 26 minutes per game since returning, he's actually increased). I decided to take a look at how his age 22 season (so far) compares with other players to get a bigger picture look at it.
Below is a graphic on his basic stats compared to Amare Stoudemire, Chris Bosh, Zach Randolph and Al Jefferson at their age 22 seasons. Why these 4? These are all extremely offensively skilled big men with serious deficiencies in other parts of their game (passing, man-man defense, team defense). These are big men getting their playing time and reputation from their offensive productivity. I could sit here and say Speights has a higher PER at a higher TS% than Duncan at age 22, but that would be a little disengenuous considering Duncan was posting defensive win shares in the 7+ range at that stage of his career (whereas Chris Bosh is roughly half that).
Continue reading "Speights offensive productivity"
Sunday, December 20. 2009
Going to keep this short, as I was working too long on some new features to the site and my allotment of "PhillyArena time" is low.
Got the chance to meet up with Brian and some of the DepressedFan visitors at the game last night. Thanks Brian for hooking us up with some great seats. It was nice to put some faces to names.
Thursday, December 17. 2009
Kate Fagan is reporting that Iverson is going to miss Friday's game against the Celtics due to the ongoing issues he's been having with his left knee (drained twice in the past 4 days). Saturday's game is up in the air.
Starting lineup? Do we see the abandonment of small ball? Jrue, Iguodala, Young, Brand, Dalembert? Does Speights start instead of Brand? Willie ?
Wednesday, December 16. 2009
It's becoming a running theme, but the results from tonight's 108-101 loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers wasn't entirely unexpected, but it represents another example of the team's inability to close out close games. Continually late game failures generally placed on the coach, and some of the substitutions towards the end of the game certainly bring the coach under fire (cough*Willie Green for Jrue Holiday*cough).
Another game with the small lineup, and another game where it didn't kill them on the offensive glass (by the same token, it didn't help improve their 3 pt defense, either). Except for a few times Iverson was able to get into the lane, he was largely ineffective, and that ended up showing on the boxscore in the +/- column. The Sixers built their run largely while Iverson was on the bench in the third quarter, and they held a 1 point lead when he entered in the 4th. That's not to say it was all on "the little kid", but after two promising games earlier this week it was definitely a bit of a letdown.
Wednesday, December 16. 2009
A pair of significant potential linuep tidbits coming out in the last few days.
First, Dei Lynam has reported that Jrue Holiday could remain in the starting lineup. The likely person he would replace is Elton Brand, who came off the bench on Monday to go with a small lineup (Iverson, Holiday, Igudoala, Young, Dalembert).
The second bit of news comes from the injury report, as According to Kate Fagan, Marresse Speights is expected to return in limited minutes tonight.
Monday, December 7. 2009
I've been fairly vocal about my dislike of the Iverson signing, including right here on this site. I think the move was made for the wrong reasons, and I don't it has a legitimate chance of solving the many problems that ail this team on the basketball court.
All that being said, I would be remiss to deny the excitement I felt leading up to the game, during pregame, and throughout the game. The man may be a flawed basketball player, teammate, and person, but there are very few players in the game today as entertaining to watch as he is.
There's a very large part of me that wishes I believed this would work out. Iverson riding back into town to carry the Sixers on his back and get them into the playoffs (and back into NBA relevancy) would be an insanely fun time. I just don't see that happening. But I hope it happens.
Sunday, December 6. 2009
I'm excited to announce a new feature I've spent quite a bit of time working on the last 2 weeks, rotational data and searches. What can you do with this?
First, rotations are displayed in box scores, as well as +/- data. So, on each games boxscore it will display the players +/- figure for that game (similar to yahoo and nba.com), and on the bottom of the boxscore it will list all of the rotations. What time they came in, what time they left, the score when they came in and left, the lineup, and the +/- for that rotation.
Perhaps more importantly is the ability to search rotations to find out +/- and per48 minute production for lineups. Want to see how the team does with Andre Igudoala at the 4 ? Now one quick search away. Want to see how the Elton Brand/Jason Smith combination perform? Can find that as well. It will display a log of all the rotations, give you a link so you can provide a link to that search, and on the bottom list the overall productivity of that lineup.
I have a lot of features that I want to add to this (i.e. the ability to exclude players, so you can say "give me rotations where Iguodala and Jason Smith are playing, but Samuel Dalembert is on the bench. The ability to hide the log and only view the results. Showing the results when the lineup doesn't match the requested). These features will come with time. This is simply a start. Feel free to let me know any features you'd like to see.
Example Searches:
Original Starting lineup
With Jrue/Willie Green
With Jrue/Jason Smith
With Thad at the 3
With Thad at the 4.
Friday, December 4. 2009
The second episode of the Sixers Beat, a 76ers radio show with Brian and myself, is now archived and available for download. Check it out here.
Wednesday, December 2. 2009
Keith Russell is reporting that Allen Iverson is ready to accept the 1 year, minimum salary offer the Sixers have reportedly made. This will be announced Wednesday.
Let the debates begin.
Tuesday, December 1. 2009
I'm going to keep this brief, because I just spent far too long working on a new feature to the site that is now essentially finished (at least in its initial form), that I hope to be able to bring to you hopefully by Wednesday night's game. But I'll keep that hush hush for now.
Quick Thoughts:
- Jrue played very poorly to start the 4th, and probably deserved to be pulled.
- I thought Willie Green was horrible in the first half, but I have to give him credit for making shots down the stretch. I thought his defense was poor, for the most part. (Ironically, the game winning shot I thought was the exception to the "bad defense" statement).
- Sammy and Brand were spectacular. Today was a testiment to how much rebounding can affect a game. Despite being outshot fairly handily (51.7% vs 42.9% eFG%) and losing the turnover battle, the Sixers hung in there against a clearly superior team. Grabbing 24 offensive rebounds will do that do you.
- My concerns with Brand are getting less and less, He really seems to be rounding into form.
- Thad had another strong outing. Now averaging an even 20 ppg on 54% shooting (52.4% from 3) over his last 6 games. His 3pt% for the year is up to 37.8%. That's a key, both for him and this offense.
- I know the Sixers are short on players, but Royal Ivey really should never see 15 minutes in a game. Those minutes need to go to Holiday, Carney (who's in a terrible funk right now), and Kapono. All of them provide more than Ivey.
- I have no idea what Sammy was thinking on that last play. I don't think it was going in, but he had to know the situation there. The buzzer sounded over a second before he touched it. It may not have cost them, but it brings them absolutely no benefit. The look on his face after he realized what he did was priceless.
Player of the Game: Elton Brand (it was Sammy until the horn sounded).
Boxscore
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Comments
Sun, 04.04.2010 17:08
One statistical anal ysis I'd like to see , either here [...]Comments ()
Wed, 10.03.2010 00:57
This is probably loo king too far in the future, but wh [...]Comments ()
Tue, 09.03.2010 02:43
Like I said, always up for a lively deba te. 2:30 am w [...]Comments ()
Tue, 09.03.2010 02:07
Our very own Dean H. attended a season t icket holder e [...]Comments ()
Tue, 09.03.2010 01:55
Thanks for the compe lling counter and ki nd words Derek [...]Comments ()
Tue, 09.03.2010 00:36
As would I. In fact , I think he's proba bly the only o [...]Comments ()
Mon, 08.03.2010 13:05
From that list, I'll take Van GundyComments ()
Fri, 05.03.2010 15:00
The sixers are only set at 2 positions w ith guys who c [...]Comments ()
Fri, 05.03.2010 08:23
IMO, there are 3 dif ference makers in th is draft: W [...]Comments ()
Thu, 04.03.2010 15:28
Epic failure of misj udgment and cronyism is exactly ri [...]Comments ()