2009-2010 Sixers Preview

The Sixers season begins today, an event almost unnoticed in the Philadelphia sports landscape. Taking a back seat to the Phillies repeat-bid and the Eagles upcoming face-off against the Giants, the Sixers begin their season in anonymity. While there may not be a high level of excitement in the city overall, there is from this fan (even if I will be watching tonights game delayed on DVR).

Expectations? Not much. I think expecting a significant deviation from the norm for this team is a little unrealistic, in either direction. Barring a miraculous improvement from some of their young players I don't expect anythign more than 45 wins, and barring a string of serious injuries I don't expect them to win less than 35.

The world of mediocrity in todays NBA.

The life of a Sixers fan. Little chance to truly contend, but just good enough to hold your attention.

The best chance the Sixers have of changing that? Thaddeus Young. We can talk all we want about the continued development of Andre Iguodala, about Elton Brand returning to form, and about Louis Williams playing efficient basketball, but without a player that opposing teams gameplan against defensively, this team isn't going to realistically challenge for a title, even if all what-if's turn out in the Sixers favor.

Thaddeus Young is the only one currently on the roster with that capability. For all of Elton Brand's virtues, he was never that true #1 option. That guy who opposing teams would gameplan against, who could get his shot when the offense breaks down, who could pick up a team when they begin to lag.

Many will make the argument that isolation basketball doesn't win, but this is not what's being argued. Having a player capable of getting his shot when the offense breaks down, or in late-game situations, is far different than saying Thaddeus Young should be isolated on the wing 20 times per game.

That doesn't mean I expect Young to be a legitimate number one option this year. Even moreso, I don't expect Young to be able to capitalize on the defensive attention he would receive if he did establish himself as a capable #1 scorer. As great of a scorer as Kevin Durant is, he's not going to truly be able to lead a team to contention until his ballhandling and playmaking improve to the point of being able to use that ability to get others good shots. Young is in a similar situation. Even if he could average 20-22 ppg, the Sixers may not be ready to conted.

Still, it's hard not to be optimistic about Young. This was a kid who, at 20 years old last year, averaged 18.6 ppg on 52.2% shooting in 24 games after the all-star break, hardly a small sample size. It's not a stretch to assume that 20 ppg is not out of the question this year. If that happens, and Iguodala retains his effectiveness at the 2, the Sixers could be a solid 45 win team and be a legitimate playoff team this year even if Brand only comes back as a 15 ppg third option playing good defense and rebounding the basketball.

Long gone are the days when Young was strictly a fast-break weapon.

Even with tempered expectations, there's still plenty to watch for. Iguodala is steadily progressing towards being one of the more well-rounded players in the league. I mentioned before that I don't think Igudoala has it in him to be a legitimate top option, and I think that mainly because I don't see the first step or body control in him to score that consistently in the half court. However, if he could improve his three point proficiency, he could firmly entrench himself into the 20+ ppg range, and more importantly would open things up in the half court for the team tremendously.

I like the drafting if Jrue Holiday, although I don't expect him to get serious time this year. Still, he could contend to take Royal Ivey's spot in the rotation in short order, and in the second half could see regular, albeit limited, playing time with his defense and ability ot lead the break. The half court offense is going to take some time, but his ability to extend the range on his jumper that he showed in the preseason is a step forward.

Louis Williams is a tough read. His jumpshot is incredibly inconsistent, and his set-shot very disappointing. Perhaps more relevant than his shoot-first mentality is his overall poor defensive play. The Princeton Offense, and more specifically one with as good of a playmaker as Iguodala on the wing, doesn't need a true point guard. But having a poor defensive point guard with bad catch-and-shoot ability is a bad combination. If both of those attributes don't improve, Louis Williams might not be a good long term fit.

The improvement of Marreese Speights was the story of the summer league, and he appears at times to be our most well rounded big man offensively. He's become a black hole (something that was feared coming out of college), but his skillset is undeniable. Perhaps most impressive was the effort (and production) he was giving on the glass in preseason. His improvement could limit the minutes of the other bad fit on this team offensively, Samuel Dalembert.

Finally, there's Elton Brand. His days as a 20/10 guy may be over, both because of his lack of explosion and fit. Brand was never a high jumper, but he was quick off his feet. I don't see that anymore. Furthermore, when he was at his best with the Clippers it was in pick and roll situations, and the Sixers don't have a good pick and roll player on the roster.

If Jrue Holiday can develop into a legitimate starting point guard, with three point range, the Sixers could have one of the best defensive teams in the league in coming years. Similarly crucial in the Sixers elevating into contender status is the development of Thaddeus Young into a legitimate #1 option, and his ability to make plays for his teammates from the attention he receives. Unfortunately, the odds of both of these happening this year are slim, so the year remains another one of looking for key development over true contention. Exciting but, ultimately, unfulfilling at the end.